Introduction

In a bullish stride for India’s equity landscape, Axis Securities has unveiled its eagerly awaited Top Picks for July 2025. The firm’s report spotlights 15 high-conviction stocks—among them, Lupin, State Bank of India (SBI), and Bajaj Finance—projected to deliver upside potential as high as 30% in the coming months. This list is designed to help investors navigate the evolving market terrain, blending large-cap resilience with emerging growth stories.

Why Axis Securities Is Bullish on 2025

Axis Securities’ optimism is underpinned by improving domestic macroeconomic conditions, robust FY26 earnings forecasts, and a sharp revival in market sentiment since March 2025. Strong government capital expenditure, supportive policy measures, and improved trade dynamics provide the backdrop for these prospective outperformers.

Lupin: Pharma Powerhouse with 29% Upside

Lupin stands out with an estimated upside of 29%, propelled by robust earnings growth and margin improvements. The pharmaceutical giant has consistently delivered an ROE above its five-year average and beat its three-year revenue CAGR recently. Recent quarterly results show remarkable profit growth and improving operating profit margins, positioning Lupin as a top healthcare bet for the year ahead.

• Key Stats:

  • Share Price (August 2025): ₹1,870

  • 1-Year Revenue Growth: 13.77%

  • ROE (Mar 2025): 19.07%

  • Strong export performance and new launches in the US and Europe.

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• Axis Securities stock picks 2025

Axis’s conviction in Lupin is built upon its global footprint, product pipeline, and sustained margin gains, making it a preferred choice as the healthcare sector sustains post-pandemic demand.

State Bank of India (SBI): Reliable Value, 25% Potential Upside

India’s largest public-sector lender, SBI, is expected to deliver an impressive 25% upside—showcasing Axis Securities’ confidence in its asset quality and growth prospects. SBI’s ability to maintain above-industry growth, a comfortable liabilities base, and strong underwriting even amid broader sector volatility supports this outlook.

• Key Stats:

  • Share Price (August 2025): Benchmarking around ₹812–₹835

  • FY25 Price Target: ₹1,040 (Axis Securities), implying ~25–31% upside from August levels.

  • Asset quality remains robust; RoA expected to remain steady at 1%.

SBI is a linchpin of the financial sector rally, benefiting from rate cycle dynamics, healthy credit expansion, and continued digital transformation efforts.

Bajaj Finance: Consistent Performer with Double-Digit Upside

Bajaj Finance rounds out the trio with a projected 12% upside according to Axis Securities. Despite some recent volatility, the NBFC giant boasts a history of strong profit growth and operational excellence. Bajaj Finance’s addition to the Axis list (replacing ICICI Bank) signals a preference for interest-rate-sensitive plays in a potential easing cycle.

• Key Stats:

  • Share Price (August 2025): Around ₹884–₹913

  • 1-Year Return: Over 34%

  • 5-Year Profit Growth CAGR: ~25.9%

  • PE Ratio (July 2025): 32.5

  • FY26 target price: Around ₹978–₹1,150 by consensus estimates.

Bajaj Finance’s healthy dividend payouts and sector leadership in digital lending remain key draws, even as analysts caution on short-term moderation.

Beyond the Big Three: What’s in the Basket?

Axis Securities’ top 15 picks encompass a blend of large, mid, and small-cap players across sectors—Varun Beverages, Colgate-Palmolive India, APL Apollo Tubes, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel, and Max Healthcare also feature for their specific growth catalysts. The basket outperformed Nifty 50 in the last quarter, highlighting its winning selection approach.

Major Drivers for Upside Potential

• Macroeconomic Stability: RBI policy support and anticipated rate cuts.

• Corporate and Public Sector Spending: Infrastructure and consumption boost prospects.

• Earnings Growth: Strong portfolio growth in banking, pharma, and consumer sectors.

• Valuation Comfort: Select stocks offer rerating room in an otherwise fully valued market.

• Sectoral Rotation: Preference for financials, healthcare, and FMCG.

Investing Strategy for 2025

For investors, the Axis Top Picks report underscores the importance of sector rotation, bottom-up stock selection, and disciplined allocation. Chasing past winners may not suffice—careful research, focus on fundamentally sound companies, and sectoral balance remain crucial amid evolving policy cues.

Conclusion

With upside potential of up to 30%, Axis Securities’ top picks—including Lupin, SBI, and Bajaj Finance—represent high-conviction opportunities anchored in robust earnings visibility, domestic macro strength, and sector leadership. Investors aiming for outperformance in FY25–26 would do well to consider these researched choices as core portfolio additions.

Disclaimer: Stock market investments are subject to risks. Investors should consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.