Kotak Mahindra May Slide Further; Axis Near Support; Shriram Finance Top NBFC Pick: Gaurav Sharma

Understanding the Current Market Outlook

The Indian banking and financial sector has entered a phase of intensified volatility in July 2025. According to SEBI-registered research analyst Gaurav Sharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank may face further downside pressure while Axis Bank is trading close to medium-term support levels. Meanwhile, Shriram Finance stands out as a top non-banking financial company (NBFC) pick for the year, thanks to its robust fundamentals and earning potential.

Kotak Mahindra: More Downside Ahead?

Recently, Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) has experienced a sharp correction, declining nearly 11% over the last month, outpacing broader market weakness.

       kotak Mahindra

 After opening at ₹2,025.3 and closing at ₹2,124.6 the previous day, the stock has slipped further and is now trading at around ₹1,966 as of July 28, 2025. Analysts point to concerns including reduced FPI/FII holding, an underperforming credit card portfolio, and sector-wide challenges in microfinance and unsecured lending.

Key financial highlights:

• 5-year compounded profit growth: 21%

• Return on equity (ROE): ~15.4%

• 3-year compounded sales growth: 25%

• Price-to-earnings (P/E): ~20.4

With these metrics, Kotak remains fundamentally solid, but technical analysts warn of further slides as the stock fails to find strong buying interest amid persistent market pressure.

Axis Bank: Approaching Strong Support

Axis Bank is in focus for a different reason: it is nearing technical support zones that have historically triggered recoveries:

• Current share price: ₹1,173.80 (July 29, 2025)

• Key daily support: ₹1,167–1,168 (pivot and Fibonacci retracement zones)

• Next major support levels: ₹1,114–1,119

• Upside resistance: ₹1,182–1,187

Technical analysis shows Axis Bank moving into a confluence of daily and weekly support levels. While a further fall cannot be ruled out if support breaks, market experts see this as a potential entry point for medium-term investors. The MACD trend also suggests a likely reversal if momentum improves, so traders should watch for confirmation via closing prices near support zones.

Shriram Finance: The Standout NBFC Pick

Among NBFCs, Shriram Finance is drawing considerable attention as the “top sector pick” for 2025. The company is projected to deliver a profit CAGR of 19% over the FY25–FY27 period, with a targeted RoE of 17% and RoA of 3.3%. Major factors behind this bullish stance:

• Diversified loan book, strong execution, and robust return ratios

• High earnings visibility and significant margin improvement potential

• Resilient AUM growth, outpacing the Nifty Financial Services Index

Brokerages like Motilal Oswal have assigned a target price of ₹800 for Shriram Finance, citing both outstanding recent stock performance and room for further re-rating as the company strengthens its market position. Since January 2025, Shriram Finance has delivered a 22% return, well ahead of peers and indices.

Expert Insights: Gaurav Sharma’s Stock Strategy

Gaurav Sharma’s approach emphasizes weekly trend analysis and accumulation patterns near technical swing lows or breakouts. His selections are widely followed for their data-backed, precision-driven approach. In his recent market commentary, he advises:

• Exercising caution with Kotak Mahindra Bank if the downtrend persists.

• Monitoring Axis Bank for possible rebounds off strong supports, ideal for staggered accumulation by long-term investors.

• Maintaining Shriram Finance as a top NBFC holding for both growth and value-driven portfolios in 2025.

How to Position Your Portfolio

In light of these developments, investors should:

• For Kotak Mahindra: Wait for clear signs of a bottom before fresh buying, keeping stop-losses tight if already invested.

• For Axis Bank: Watch support levels closely; consider partial accumulation if the stock sustains above ₹1,167–1,170 on closing basis.

• For Shriram Finance: Retain or add on dips, with a medium- to long-term perspective, given the strong earnings outlook and valuation comfort.

By tailoring your strategy according to technical and fundamental updates—and closely tracking expert commentary from analysts like Gaurav Sharma—you can better navigate the uncertainties of India’s financial sector in 2025.